Outline for Solar Empire 2100+
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This is a brief Outline of the Key concepts to be explored in Solar Empire 2100+ Which is a book I am developing about a possible hopeful near future for humanity over the next few centuries.
The work is being developed in the Substack by the same Name Solar Empire 2100+ , you will need to subscribe to this separately.
We start out with a rather Stark picture of where we are in
We discuss how one possible future is dismal and dystopian cycle of out of control climate change and periods of population growth follow by cycles of population decline and growth.
We then in another chapter discuss how over the next serveral decades moving a portion of our industries off the planet to the moon, to cis lunar space and material rich asteroids could provide a hopeful multi-planet alternative to a dismal future .
It’s also a counter to this recent study
Space Colonies may not be inevitable after all
We also dive into the possibility that we may not be the first civilization that reached this point and talk about the Search for such civilizations and why the constraints imposed by our human notion of how alien civilizations develop may be the biggest obstacle to us detecting them Each point in this outline will develop into full chapters in the book. We start out with how we classify advanced civilizations.
The Kardashev scale is a theoretical framework that measures a civilization's technological advancement based on its ability to harness energy. The scale was proposed by the Russian astrophysicist Nikolai Kardashev in 1964 and is based on the amount of energy a civilization is capable of harnessing and utilizing.
A Type I civilization is a hypothetical civilization that could harness all the energy available on its home planet. This would require harnessing the energy of all the planet's natural resources, including its oceans, geothermal energy, and fossil fuels. A Type I civilization would also be capable of harnessing energy from its star, through advanced technologies such as a Dyson sphere.
Currently, human civilization is estimated to be at around 0.7 on the Kardashev scale, as we are still primarily reliant on fossil fuels for energy. However, some scientists and futurists speculate that humanity could potentially reach a Type I civilization within the next few centuries, if we continue to develop modern technologies and harness renewable energy sources on a global scale.
It's worth noting that the Kardashev scale is purely theoretical and doesn't consider factors like social and political systems, which can also play a role in a civilization's advancement and development.
This classification of civilizations is important now because this is also ties into our search for extraterrestrial civilizations which concentrates on searching for radio signals or Megastructures such as Dyson spheres if our understanding of how civilizations evolve is erred it may explain why we haven’t found any signs of civilizations yet.
My contention is that Type I civilizations don’t exist or if they do are dying civilizations because they are closed systems that theoretically. drain every Erg of energy from their home planet including their star a type I civilization may also have a very high heat signature it may not even be possible for a civilization to reach the most extreme interpretation which would include control over earthquakes and the weather . while a Type I civilization would have the ability to harness a significant amount of energy, it's unlikely that they would be able to completely control natural phenomena like earthquakes or weather patterns. Such events are extremely complex and difficult to predict or control, even for an advanced civilization.
However, as the concept of the Kardashev scale has been further developed and explored over time, some interpretations have expanded beyond simply measuring energy consumption to include other factors such as a civilization's ability to control its environment or even manipulate the fabric of space-time. It's worth noting that these interpretations are not necessarily part of the original definition of the Kardashev scale, but rather represent broader interpretations and speculations about the potential capabilities of highly advanced civilizations.
A civilization that pushes its resources so far to the limits that it destroys itself before reaching type I is sometimes referred to as the great filter.
Economist Robin Hanson first proposed the Great Filter, in the late 1990s. It’s the idea of that – even if life forms abundantly exist in our Milky Way galaxy – each extraterrestrial civilization ultimately faces some barrier to its own survival.
Another reason it may be impossible to reach a type I state is the problems discussed in an earlier chapter displacement of population due to over industrialization and climate change leading to cycles of population decline thus a decrease in energy consumption followed by rapid increases in populations, a civilization might reach 0.8 or 0.9 only to experience a drop in growth and progress leading to reduced energy consumption back to a 0.5 a continuous cycle never actually attaining Type I
Kardashev scale is primarily focused on a civilization's ability to harness energy, and that this is typically measured in terms of the amount of energy they can consume and utilize. The scale was originally proposed to classify civilizations based on their energy consumption and their technological capabilities for harnessing and utilizing energy,
Regarding the detection of a Type I civilization, current methods for detecting energy consumption often rely on heat signatures, as this is one of the most obvious and observable indicators of energy use. However, it's possible that other indicators of energy consumption could also be detected in the future, such as the presence of electromagnetic or gravitational waves that could be associated with advanced technology.
Kardashev scale seems to be outdated since it needs expanded interpretation to go beyond heat signature and disregards other evidence of advanced civilizations such as information storage density
One proposed addition to the Kardashev scale is the concept of the "informational" or "intellectual" Kardashev scale, which would consider a civilization's ability to process, store, and manipulate information. This could include factors such as information storage density, computational power, and the ability to transmit information over long distances.
Other proposed additions to the Kardashev scale include considerations of a civilization's social organization, sustainability practices, and other factors that may be indicative of their level of development and technological advancement.
It's worth noting, however, that these expanded interpretations of the Kardashev scale are still largely theoretical and speculative, and there is no consensus on how best to measure or classify advanced civilizations beyond their energy consumption. Nevertheless, the Kardashev scale remains a useful framework for thinking about the potential capabilities of advanced civilizations and may continue to evolve and expand as our understanding of the universe and our technology continues to advance.
But anyway you classify a Type I civilizations it’s still a closed system and an advanced civilization, in fact only a couple centuries ahead of ours could distribute its population throughout its solar system thus utilizing non-terrestrial resources and its home planet would not qualify as type I in terms of energy consumption such civilizations could be very common but not easily detected by current methods
Raising an interesting point about the potential for advanced civilizations to distribute their population throughout their solar system and utilize non-terrestrial resources, which could have significant implications for their energy consumption and therefore their classification on the Kardashev scale. In such a scenario, a civilization might be able to effectively mitigate the energy demands on their home planet by tapping into the abundant resources of their solar system, thereby potentially reducing their energy consumption and making it more difficult to detect them using current methods.
It's certainly possible that there are advanced civilizations out there that are beyond our current ability to detect or comprehend, either because of their distribution across their solar system or because of their use of technology or energy sources that we are not yet familiar with. However, it's also worth noting that the Kardashev scale is not meant to be a comprehensive or definitive classification system for advanced civilizations, but rather a framework for thinking about the potential range of technological capabilities that such civilizations might possess.
Ultimately, our ability to detect and understand advanced civilizations will depend on our continued technological advancement and our ability to search for signs of their existence using a variety of methods, including not just heat signatures but also other indicators of advanced technology or activity. As our understanding of the universe expands, we may need to revise and expand the Kardashev scale or develop new frameworks for thinking about the potential range of advanced civilizations that may be out there.
such a system would be superior to a type I civilization and more resilient but not quite a type II, such a civilization could have exponential population growth with little severe impact because population is distributed throughout the system rather than in the closed system of the home world
It's certainly possible that a civilization that has expanded beyond its home planet and is utilizing the resources of its entire solar system could be more resilient and better equipped to handle population growth than a civilization that is confined to a single planet or even a single ecosystem. By tapping into the vast resources of their solar system, such a civilization may be able to sustain exponential population growth without facing severe resource constraints or ecological degradation. The potential for utilizing the moon and cis-lunar space for resource extraction and as a precursor to a civilization that has expanded beyond its home planet. The Artemis Accords, which aim to establish a framework for international cooperation in lunar exploration and resource utilization, certainly demonstrate the increasing interest in space exploration and utilization.
There is certainly potential for extracting valuable resources from the moon, such as silicates and helium 3, which could be used for a variety of purposes, including energy generation.
Moreover, while the utilization of the moon and cis-lunar space could be a precursor to a civilization that has expanded beyond its home planet, it's important to consider the potential ecological and ethical implications of such activities.
So a civilization that distributes its resources and industry throughout the system may never be a type I so I would call it an emergent type II since its far from a type II but will eventually reach that plateau the reason I don't think it will ever be a type I is because as industry moves out into the solar system so will riskier and higher paying jobs if we follow human migration patterns on earth including the so called California Gold rush we can assume younger families will be the ones most likely to migrate this will reduce growth on home world thus actually reduce energy consumption as population drops interestingly though because of harsher conditions you are likely to see exponential population growth on the space settlements, risk usually brings population increase
There is a caution here however as we have been exploring the Antarctic Continent for more than a century no more than 1000 - 5000 humans have lived there at one time Antartica has been embroiled in international agreements and treaties that make it difficult for nay real commercialization but that is changing more recently as China and Russia see increase opportunities both military and commercial .
It's an interesting perspective that a civilization that distributes its resources and industry throughout the system may not necessarily be a Type I civilization, and that it may instead be an emergent Type II civilization. The idea that a civilization may not reach the Type I stage due to the dispersion of resources and industry is certainly worth considering and highlights the complexity of measuring a civilization's advancement solely in terms of energy consumption.
Regarding the potential for exponential population growth in space settlements, raises an interesting point about how harsher conditions may attract risk-takers and lead to an increase in population. It's worth noting, however, that exponential population growth can also bring its own set of challenges, such as resource depletion and overcrowding, which would need to be addressed to ensure the sustainability of space settlements.
Many of those same concerns affected migration on Earth such as East to West migration in the US and it still didn't taper the human urge to expand
Human migration on Earth has been driven by a variety of factors, including the desire for new opportunities and the search for better living conditions. These same factors may apply to space migration as well, and it's possible that the urge to expand and explore will continue to drive humanity's colonization of space despite the challenges and risks involved.
The Human body is most suited to the 1 G gravity of Earth gravity will be an issue especially on lower gravity worlds like Mars, The moon would not be that much of a problem since you can arrange for period crew rotations between Earth and Colonies to limit the effect of lower gravity of course over many generations either naturally or artificially colonist will adapt to the lower gravity which will make return to earth difficult , for further destinations concurrently developing both space settlements and planetary bases could provide similar rotations on Mars rotations of 56 sols for instance that would also create a supply chain between the settlements and the colony and the colony and the settlement this is a little like a largely scaled version of Artemis which utilizes both lunar resources and an initially small lunar gateway
The issue of long-term exposure to low gravity environments is a concern for space colonization. One potential solution, as mentioned, is to establish rotating crews who can spend a limited amount of time in lower gravity environments and then return to Earth or other habitats with normal gravity. Such rotations are common for Military Families that periodically have to pack up and follow there service person family member to their new posting
Another approach is to develop technologies that can simulate Earth-like gravity on other planets This could involve rotating habitats or using other means to create artificial gravity. However, these technologies are still in the initial stages of development and it's unclear whether they will be practical or feasible for long-term space colonization.
In any case, as we continue to explore and colonize space, it will be important to carefully consider the potential impact on human health and well-being, as well as the environment and any potential native inhabitants. Collaboration and responsible planning will be key to ensuring a sustainable and successful future for space exploration and colonization.
This concept of establishing both a space settlement and planetary base can be extended as human kind ventures to other planets in the solar system and even in the further future future when humanity begin to explore nearby stars. Until humanity ever discovers a method to overcome the light barrier perhaps via some warp drive of some kind Interstellar journeys are likely to be one way the potential for a colony to be cut off from any supply line with the Home world increases , A colony cut off from its supply chain tends to de-evolve over time to an earlier state as supplies dwindle and it becomes necessary to utilize more of the planets resources, One of the first “luxuries” to be lost would likely be space travel as survival and establishing a civilization become paramount .
A future Earth or emergent type II civilization seeking to establish a colony after extensive exploration of the planetary system may send automated factories into the planetary debris fields and dust clouds surrounding most solar systems, In our solar systems that may be the Kuiper belt or the Oort Cloud at the very edge of our solar system
Self contained AI guided automated factories could build settlements from which robotic probes could continue exploration of the solar systems while awaiting the arrival of colonist. Some Scientists today speculate that UAP’s seen throughout history could be originating from some such settlement at the edge of of the solar system just waiting to be found and its secrets harvested by humans
when I was in college back in the 80's me and my economic professor had a lively discussion, he thought that human progress would have to slow down to avoid over industrialization but slowing down would reduce population and thus innovation too but that's because earth is a closed system even back then I argued that a distributed system would not be a closed system and would create an economic supply chain between settlement and home world
While it is true that Earth's resources are finite and overconsumption is a concern, a distributed system that utilizes extraterrestrial resources can create a more sustainable economic model. With the establishment of space settlements and off-world mining operations, the pressure on Earth's resources can be reduced while creating new opportunities for economic growth and innovation. Additionally, a distributed system can create a more resilient civilization that is less vulnerable to disasters or resource depletion in a specific location. Overall, a distributed system that utilizes space resources can lead to a more sustainable and prosperous future for humanity